Projections of primary liver cancer to 2030 in 30 countries worldwide.
Identifieur interne : 000542 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000541; suivant : 000543Projections of primary liver cancer to 2030 in 30 countries worldwide.
Auteurs : Patricia C. Valery [Australie] ; Mathieu Laversanne [France] ; Paul J. Clark [Australie] ; Jessica L. Petrick [États-Unis] ; Katherine A. Mcglynn [États-Unis] ; Freddie Bray [France]Source :
- Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) [ 1527-3350 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
Primary liver cancer (PLC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide and the second most common cause of cancer death. Future predictions can inform health planners and raise awareness of the need for cancer control action. We predicted the future burden of PLC in 30 countries around 2030. Incident cases of PLC (ICD-10 C22) were obtained from 30 countries for 1993-2007. We projected new PLC cases through to 2030 using age-period-cohort models (NORDPRED). Age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated by country and sex. Increases in new cases and rates of PLC are projected in both sexes. Among men, the largest increases in rates are in Norway (2.9% per annum), US whites (2.6%), and Canada (2.4%), and among women in the US (blacks 4.0%), Switzerland (3.4%), and Germany (3.0%). The projected declines are in China, Japan, Singapore, and parts of Europe (e.g. in Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia). A 35% increase in the number of new cases annually is expected compared to 2005. This increasing burden reflects both increasing rates (and the underlying prevalence of risk factors) and demographic changes. Japan is the only country with a predicted decline in the net number of cases and annual rates by 2030.
DOI: 10.1002/hep.29498
PubMed: 28859220
Affiliations:
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Valery</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston QLD, 4006, Brisbane, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston QLD, 4006, Brisbane</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Brisbane</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Laversanne, Mathieu" sort="Laversanne, Mathieu" uniqKey="Laversanne M" first="Mathieu" last="Laversanne">Mathieu Laversanne</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert-Thomas, 69372, Lyon, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert-Thomas, 69372, Lyon</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Lyon</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Clark, Paul J" sort="Clark, Paul J" uniqKey="Clark P" first="Paul J" last="Clark">Paul J. 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Future predictions can inform health planners and raise awareness of the need for cancer control action. We predicted the future burden of PLC in 30 countries around 2030. Incident cases of PLC (ICD-10 C22) were obtained from 30 countries for 1993-2007. We projected new PLC cases through to 2030 using age-period-cohort models (NORDPRED). Age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated by country and sex. Increases in new cases and rates of PLC are projected in both sexes. Among men, the largest increases in rates are in Norway (2.9% per annum), US whites (2.6%), and Canada (2.4%), and among women in the US (blacks 4.0%), Switzerland (3.4%), and Germany (3.0%). The projected declines are in China, Japan, Singapore, and parts of Europe (e.g. in Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia). A 35% increase in the number of new cases annually is expected compared to 2005. This increasing burden reflects both increasing rates (and the underlying prevalence of risk factors) and demographic changes. Japan is the only country with a predicted decline in the net number of cases and annual rates by 2030.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>France</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</li><li>Maryland</li><li>Rhône-Alpes</li></region><settlement><li>Lyon</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Valery, Patricia C" sort="Valery, Patricia C" uniqKey="Valery P" first="Patricia C" last="Valery">Patricia C. Valery</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Clark, Paul J" sort="Clark, Paul J" uniqKey="Clark P" first="Paul J" last="Clark">Paul J. Clark</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes"><name sortKey="Laversanne, Mathieu" sort="Laversanne, Mathieu" uniqKey="Laversanne M" first="Mathieu" last="Laversanne">Mathieu Laversanne</name></region><name sortKey="Bray, Freddie" sort="Bray, Freddie" uniqKey="Bray F" first="Freddie" last="Bray">Freddie Bray</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Maryland"><name sortKey="Petrick, Jessica L" sort="Petrick, Jessica L" uniqKey="Petrick J" first="Jessica L" last="Petrick">Jessica L. Petrick</name></region><name sortKey="Mcglynn, Katherine A" sort="Mcglynn, Katherine A" uniqKey="Mcglynn K" first="Katherine A" last="Mcglynn">Katherine A. Mcglynn</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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